Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) 10/26/2014 – Free NFL Picks for Week 8
Latest Odds: Detroit -4 Over/Under 47
Entering the season, both of these teams were expected to light up scoreboards with their high powered offenses. Unfortunately, for the most part, both teams have struggled offensively. For Detroit, the absence of WR Calvin Johnson (not feeling 100%) has really affected QB Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense from putting points on the board. Luckily, their defense has been stellar and a major reason for their 5-2 records.
QB Matt Ryan is having another inconsistent year – largely due to being under pressure every time he drops back to throw. WR’s Julio Jones and Roddy White are extremely talented and need to be more involved if the Falcons want to make a run for the playoffs.
I believe both offenses continue to struggle to put points on the board in this game.
Recent Betting Trends:
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games in October.
Over is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games in Week 8.
Free Betting Pick: Under 47 points
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St. Louis Rams (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) – Free NFL Picks for Week 8
Latest Odds: Kansas City -7 Over/Under 44
The Rams are riding high following an upset win at home last week versus the Seahawks 28-26. Backup QB Austin Davis has been playing well and Backup RB Tre Mason had his breakout game last week. Will the momentum continue on the road this week at Arrowhead Stadium?
The Chiefs are also coming off an upset victory against their AFC West rivals the Chargers. Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs are a difficult opponent at home. I expect them to run all over the Rams and control ball and field possession.
Recent Betting Trends:
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games in October.
Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Free Betting Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7
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The New York Jets put up a good fight against a formidable Denver team last week, but came up just short. Questionable coaching calls, QB injuries and turnovers have proved to be too much to overcome for the Jets so far this season. Now they head to New England to take on a Patriot team that seems to be playing with confidence after they were questioned by the media and their fans just 2 short weeks ago. New England is coming off of impressive back to back wins over the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.
New England’s top RB Stevan Ridley went down last week and is likely out for the season. Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden will step in to try and help the Pats continue their winning momentum.
Tom Brady is getting comfortable with his WR’s and TE Rob Gronkowski, and will look to take advantage of a weak Jets secondary. A healthy Gronkowski gives Brady the confidence of knowing his check down receiver will most likely be open.
10 points is a large spread. New England seems to be clicking right now and should win the game, but the Jets will keep it close.
Free Pick:Jets +10
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) vs Buffalo Bills (3-3)
Current Odds: Buffalo -4 Over/Under 43
The Minnesota Vikings have not looked good the past few games. A 17-3 home loss last week to the Detroit Lions was riddled with turnovers. Can rookie QB Teddy Bridewater bounce back with a better effort this weekend?
The Buffalo Bills are also coming off a loss to their AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots. Three second quarter turnovers by Buffalo led to 13 New England points and proved to be too much for the Bills to overcome. Kyle Orton looks to better his performance against an inconsistent Vikings defense.
Recent Betting Trends:
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Minnesota is 1-10-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road.
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
Houston has been a tough team to figure out so far this year. They looked great to start the season – mainly due to their strong defense. But, have sputtered the past few weeks.
The Colts enter the short week after an impressive win against a solid Ravens team. Andrew Luck thrives indoors and in big games.
Recent Betting Trends:
Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
Over is 7-1 in Colts last 8 road games.
Free Betting Pick:Indianapolis Colts -3
Green Bay Packers (3-2) vs Miami Dolphins (2-2)
Latest Odds: Green Bay -3.5 Over/Under 49
Green Bay flies south for a short “business” trip to South Beach this weekend and should keep the momentum rolling after it’s impressive 42-10 thumping against Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers, notorious for slow starts has an impressive stat line over his career in the month of October. The Dolphins defense will struggle to contain Rodgers and all of his weapons.
Recent Betting Trends:
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 road games.
Dolphins are 15-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 6.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Latest odds: Indianapolis -3.5 Over/Under 48
The Ravens are currently 12th in the league in passing, averaging 259.8 yards per game. Ravens quarterback, Joe Flacco has passed for 1055 yards and 7 touchdowns so far. RB Justin Forsett has filled in nicely since the team released Ray Rice. The Ravens defense is also playing strong against the run, only allowing 82.5 yards per game, which is 7th in the league.
Colts quarterback, Andrew Luck, has also gotten off to a strong start, throwing for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns. With a passing offense that is tops in the league, the Colts are showing that they can put points on the board. Indy is loaded at Wide Receiver led by Reggie Wayne who has returned from season ending knee injury in 2013.
Recent Betting Trends:
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Colts are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Free Betting Pick:Indianapolis Colts -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Latest odds: Pittsburgh -7 Over/Under 46.5
Pittsburgh had the game in their hands and completely blew it last week. They’ll be looking to rebound on the road. Ever since the Jaguars scored 17 first half points against the Eagles in Week 1, they have been outscored by a total of 41 to 152.
Recent Betting Trends:
Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.
Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Jaguars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
The point spread is the handicap, or head start, that oddsmakers give to the underdog. Betting against the spread can make a lopsided event more interesting – rather than just winning outright, the favorite must win by more than the point spread (also known as covering the spread) for bets on the favorite to win. As you can see, the point spread is designed to make betting on either side equally attractive.
Let’s say an NFL matchup has the Chicago Bears at home against the Green Bay Packers. The oddsmaker might decide to give the Packers a 3.5-point head start, which is expressed as Packers +3.5, or Bears -3.5. Here’s what that line would look like:
Green Bay Packers +3.5
@ Chicago Bears -3.5
With the spread set at 3.5 points, if you bet on the Bears, you’ll win your bet if they win the game by more than four points (or if their score is higher even after you subtract 3.5 points from it). If you bet on the Packers, you’ll win your bet if they lose by no more than three points.
Sometimes oddsmakers will set the line on an even number like 3, 6 or even 10. In cases like these, if the favored team wins by the exact amount set for the spread, the bet would be considered a push and your risk amount would be returned. For example, if the New York Giants were 7-point favorites and they won by a touchdown (seven points), any wager on the Giants at -7 would result in a push.
Every now and then you’ll come across a game without a spread. This is called a pick’em and both teams are given even odds to win the game. Since no points are given or taken away in a pick’em, the team that wins the game is the team that wins the bet.
Your payout is determined by the moneyline odds attached to the point spread. A negative number (such as -170) shows how much money you must wager to win $100, while a positive number (like +150) shows how much money you will win on a $100 wager.
Typically, the odds given on the spread are -110 unless otherwise noted. If one side is receiving a lot of action, oddsmakers may adjust the lines accordingly in an effort to balance the action.
You can place a point spread bet on the whole game or only a portion of it – when first half, second half or quarter lines are offered.
